Another reason to hate electric vehicles?

[Mark S.]

Also, they will be forced on some people eventually with already 7 states looking to ban gas powered cars by 2035 and I'd gather more will announce similar plans in the near future.
...so it seems to me instead of banning one or another, that really relying on a combination of types to various degrees is what will keep us adaptable and help keep prices lower.

It's rare that such extensive meddling by the government in free markets yields the desired results. Even without government fiat, EVs sales will eventually overtake ICE vehicle sales...when they meet consumers' needs.

I view government statements regarding bans on ICE vehicles by a certain date as an attempt to force innovation. Why? Because when the date arrives, and EVs still cannot compete with ICE vehicles on price vs performance, lawmakers will almost certainly change the deadlines. How can they not?

The bottom line is no amount of government intervention will speed technological progress. Laws such as those passed in States that plan to "ban" ICE vehicles are virtue signaling. The market, and the market alone, will determine when EVs are accepted by consumers.

Also, you can have a contrary opinion without injecting sarcasm and trollish statements like 'good luck to you' and 'I suspect you have someone talking in your ear'.

Agreed. We need to focus debate on ideas, not people.

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[RushMan]

It's rare that such extensive meddling by the government in free markets yields the desired results. Even without government fiat, EVs sales will eventually overtake ICE vehicle sales...when they meet consumers' needs.

I view government statements regarding bans ICE vehicles by a certain date as an attempt to force innovation. Why? Because when the date arrives, and EVs still cannot compete with ICE vehicles on price vs performance, lawmakers will almost certainly change the deadlines. How can they not?

The bottom line is no amount of government intervention will speed technological progress. Laws such as those passed in States that plan to "ban" ICE vehicles are virtue signaling. The market, and the market alone, will determine when EVs are accepted by consumers.


Agreed. We need to focus debate on ideas, not people.

The real concern is when will the oil run out? The bad news is that it is not far off, perhaps within a generation or 3.
When crude oil gets to be a very limiting commodity, there will be chaos.
One can research that statement by looking at the oil companies reserves.
And look at the big Ghawar reservoir's predicted lifetime and the lifetime of a typical fracked tight oil reservoir.
Starting the change to electric transport will take a lot time, and there will be resistance.
And the power infrastructure needs a major overhaul and expansion, which will require major investment.
It will be very inconvenient and costly to many.
My own home does not have 220 volt outlets. anywhere. The EV crowd say no big deal, just connect to the 220 volt line for your electric clothes dryer. Should I add that? Or just recognize that I won't live long enough to need to switch to an EV, and leave the upgrade of my house to its next ownership after I pass on.
And then there are those with no convenient access to charging: apartment dwellers and city city dwellers without their own parking.
I could be happy with a hybrid, except the current hybrids don't have the level of performance that I need/like.
So far now, I've just ordered a '24 BS BL. I want that 2.0 liter engine.

 

[Mark S.]

The real concern is when will the oil run out? The bad news is that it is not far off, perhaps within a generation or 3.

https://gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354

 

[RushMan]

https://gizmodo.com/weve-been-incorrectly-predicting-peak-oil-for-over-a-ce-1668986354

I'm well aware of Peak Oil. I worked for a major oil company my whole career. There, I admitted it.
I also met Kenneth S. Deffeyes.
He was a student and colleague of M. King Hubbert's at Shell Oil back in the 50s.
He wrote 2 books on Peak Oil, both of which are now dated.
Newer production techniques and refining optimizations negated all the predictions of Hubbert's and even Deffeyes'. But right now, with the parts of the world formerly labeled as "3rd World," now known as "Developing Nations." demand is increasing worldwide, while resources are not being discovered as fast as they are being depleted.

 

[BFunk II]

The good luck was sincere but I do apologize for the for the way it read. Not after you or anybody just trying to understand their logic for hating or why they think it is being "shoved down their throat"
I don't hear this. The neg on EV is not hidden information either. Its out their. I stand by the the comment of somebody talking in their ear. May not be you but it is definitely happening.

 

[Bucko]

The real concern is when will the oil run out? The bad news is that it is not far off, perhaps within a generation or 3.
When crude oil gets to be a very limiting commodity, there will be chaos.
One can research that statement by looking at the oil companies reserves.
And look at the big Ghawar reservoir's predicted lifetime and the lifetime of a typical fracked tight oil reservoir.
Starting the change to electric transport will take a lot time, and there will be resistance.
And the power infrastructure needs a major overhaul and expansion, which will require major investment.
It will be very inconvenient and costly to many.
My own home does not have 220 volt outlets. anywhere. The EV crowd say no big deal, just connect to the 220 volt line for your electric clothes dryer. Should I add that? Or just recognize that I won't live long enough to need to switch to an EV, and leave the upgrade of my house to its next ownership after I pass on.
And then there are those with no convenient access to charging: apartment dwellers and city city dwellers without their own parking.
I could be happy with a hybrid, except the current hybrids don't have the level of performance that I need/like.
So far now, I've just ordered a '24 BS BL. I want that 2.0 liter engine.

Are you going to add a CAI, exhaust, and tune to it?

 

[RushMan]

Are you going to add a CAI, exhaust, and tune to it?

No, mostly cosmetic and convenience items: graphics, pinstripes, window and hood deflectors, bumper protector and Redline hood struts.

 

[Mark S.]

But right now, with the parts of the world formerly labeled as "3rd World," now known as "Developing Nations." demand is increasing worldwide, while resources are not being discovered as fast as they are being depleted.

All past predictions of oil depletion were based on what we knew, and it's always something we didn't know that nullified them. Given the number and accuracy of past predictions (0% right so far) I'm skeptical of any claims of certainty regarding oil depletion. Could we eventually use it all? Probably. Will it happen any time soon? I don't believe anyone can know the answer to that with any certainty. Humans have proven quite resourceful (heh) at finding new petroleum sources.

 

[sajohnson]

All past predictions of oil depletion were based on what we knew, and it's always something we didn't know that nullified them. Given the number and accuracy of past predictions (0% right so far) I'm skeptical of any claims of certainty regarding oil depletion. Could we eventually use it all? Probably. Will it happen any time soon? I don't believe anyone can know the answer to that with any certainty. Humans have proven quite resourceful (heh) at finding new petroleum sources.

All true.

I'd suggest that since we don't know with any certainty, and since 'past performance is no guarantee of future results', it is best to proceed as if we are going to run out sooner rather than later.

One consideration is that there are products (like plastics) that can only be made with petroleum. We should try to keep as much inn the ground as possible for those uses.

Not to mention the pesky consequences of burning carbon based fuels.

If we have not developed viable renewable sources of energy when the last reserves begin to dry up -- whether that's in 20 years or 200 years -- it will be very, very ugly.

In short, we're already pushing our luck. Boy Scout motto: "Be Prepared!"

 

[Mark S.]

I'd suggest that since we don't know with any certainty, and since 'past performance is no guarantee of future results', it is best to proceed as if we are going to run out sooner rather than later.

Prudence is always a virtue, as long as the cure isn't worse than the disease. Development of alternative energy sources is (and has been) ongoing, and that's as it should be. Even if we don't run out of petroleum tomorrow it's pretty clear we can't keep using it at the rates we do.

That said, fossil fuels get an undeserved bad rap IMHO. We have managed over the past half century to reduce the percentage of humanity living in abject poverty to the lowest it's ever been in recorded history despite an explosion in population growth, and the availability of relatively cheap fossil fuels has arguably played the biggest part in that accomplishment. We absolutely need to find alternatives, but a lot of "solutions" bandied about in the name of saving humanity could easily reverse those gains. That danger ALSO requires prudence in whatever approach we take to solving our energy problems.

 

[sajohnson]

The good luck was sincere but I do apologize for the for the way it read. Not after you or anybody just trying to understand their logic for hating or why they think it is being "shoved down their throat"
I don't hear this. The neg on EV is not hidden information either. Its out their. I stand by the the comment of somebody talking in their ear. May not be you but it is definitely happening.

"Somebody talking in their ear" is very common and happens to essentially all of us. What varies from one person to the next is their source of information, how credible it is, and whether they accept that source as the one true font of truth.

Most people tend to migrate toward sources of news/information that conform to their pre-established biases. If you are not already aware of it, "Media Bias Charts" can be a helpful tool:

https://www.allsides.com/media-bias/media-bias-chart
https://www.allsides.com/blog/allsides-media-bias-chart-version-8

https://adfontesmedia.com/interactive-media-bias-chart/

I'm not claiming those are the be-all, end-all sources of wisdom -- just examples of media bias charts. There are many of them, but most seem to generally agree about left/right bias and overall accuracy.

WRT the subject at hand, a person who unquestioning listens to Fox may believe EVs are an 'enviro-Nazi' socialist plot (exaggerating) and a person who blindly listens to MSNBC may believe EVs are going to save the planet.

 

[sajohnson]

I'm well aware of Peak Oil. I worked for a major oil company my whole career. There, I admitted it.
I also met Kenneth S. Deffeyes.
He was a student and colleague of M. King Hubbert's at Shell Oil back in the 50s.
He wrote 2 books on Peak Oil, both of which are now dated.
Newer production techniques and refining optimizations negated all the predictions of Hubbert's and even Deffeyes'. But right now, with the parts of the world formerly labeled as "3rd World," now known as "Developing Nations." demand is increasing worldwide, while resources are not being discovered as fast as they are being depleted.

Good point about demand increasing. The U.S. is about 4% of world population, yet we use 25% of the total resources consumed each year.

Both China and India want to modernize, their citizens understandably want a "Western" lifestyle. That's about 2.5 Billion people -- that's 7.5 TIMES our population, potentially using 7.5x the resources.

Something's gotta give. Even if we could snap our fingers and have 100% of global electricity needs supplied by renewables (with massive amounts of storage) and 'an EV in every pot' (garage) there are many more problems that need to be solved -- most of them a direct result of overpopulation and limited resources.

 

[sajohnson]

The real concern is when will the oil run out? The bad news is that it is not far off, perhaps within a generation or 3.
When crude oil gets to be a very limiting commodity, there will be chaos.
One can research that statement by looking at the oil companies reserves.
And look at the big Ghawar reservoir's predicted lifetime and the lifetime of a typical fracked tight oil reservoir.
Starting the change to electric transport will take a lot time, and there will be resistance.
And the power infrastructure needs a major overhaul and expansion, which will require major investment.
It will be very inconvenient and costly to many.
My own home does not have 220 volt outlets. anywhere. The EV crowd say no big deal, just connect to the 220 volt line for your electric clothes dryer. Should I add that? Or just recognize that I won't live long enough to need to switch to an EV, and leave the upgrade of my house to its next ownership after I pass on.
And then there are those with no convenient access to charging: apartment dwellers and city city dwellers without their own parking.
I could be happy with a hybrid, except the current hybrids don't have the level of performance that I need/like.
So far now, I've just ordered a '24 BS BL. I want that 2.0 liter engine.

Good observation about ".... those with no convenient access to charging: apartment dwellers and city dwellers without their own parking."

My (completely unresearched) theory is that the growth in EV sales will soften when the group of people who can charge at home has been saturated.

As it is, as much as I like EVs, the fact is that they are most attractive to those who can charge at home. Others must use (sometimes inconvenient) public chargers which are usually *stupid* expensive -- as in $0.50+ per kWh!! At that point, many ICE vehicles are less expensive per mile (for the "fuel" anyway).

If Ford made an electric version of the BS BL we would have bought that. We can charge at home (and I can do the wiring). We live in a semi-rural area, but our longest routine trip is about 30 miles, and typically much less. The longest is about 180 miles, and most EVs can handle that.

If we lived in an apartment, it's very unlikely we'd get an EV. Lack of home (or at least convenient, inexpensive) home charging is going to be a big hurdle for EV mfrs.

Speaking of hybrids, there is an "Engineering Explained" video comparing the carbon footprint of ICE vehicles to comparably sized EVs. At one point he says that there are some cases where a hybrid makes the most sense (smallest footprint).

 

[BFunk II]

That was very helpful sajohnson. Thank you. While I’m sure many other things may factor into many others opinions also, I think what you posted was well said.

 

[RushMan]

Good observation about ".... those with no convenient access to charging: apartment dwellers and city dwellers without their own parking."

My (completely unresearched) theory is that the growth in EV sales will soften when the group of people who can charge at home has been saturated.

As it is, as much as I like EVs, the fact is that they are most attractive to those who can charge at home. Others must use (sometimes inconvenient) public chargers which are usually *stupid* expensive -- as in $0.50+ per kWh!! At that point, many ICE vehicles are less expensive per mile (for the "fuel" anyway).

If Ford made an electric version of the BS BL we would have bought that. We can charge at home (and I can do the wiring). We live in a semi-rural area, but our longest routine trip is about 30 miles, and typically much less. The longest is about 180 miles, and most EVs can handle that.

If we lived in an apartment, it's very unlikely we'd get an EV. Lack of home (or at least convenient, inexpensive) home charging is going to be a big hurdle for EV mfrs.

Speaking of hybrids, there is an "Engineering Explained" video comparing the carbon footprint of ICE vehicles to comparably sized EVs. At one point he says that there are some cases where a hybrid makes the most sense (smallest footprint).

This is a healthy discussion.
I'd be accepting of a hybrid, whether BS or Escape, as long as performance wasn't too compromised. More hybrids rather than pure EVs would make the changeover to an EV transportation world more realistic, economically and convenience-wise.

The current generation of EVs are way overpowered, IMO. There is no need for 6 second or quicker 0-60 times, if their purpose is climate saving. I think marketing has an influence there, trying to make EVs more attractive to at least some of the new car buying public, by highlighting the acceleration. That kind of performance is not necessary for the family car.

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