Gas prices & emissions discussions

magicbus

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Its $3.58 a gallon here. 8 bucks??? Time to pump up my bike tires. :sunglasses:
 

Cyclone Cowboy

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It's not $8.00 here yet, but depending on the political environment, US oil production could come to a screaming halt. I mean this as a fact with the addition of the Green Deal, not a political statement either way.
 
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It's not $8.00 here yet, but depending on the political environment, US oil production could come to a screaming halt. I mean this as a fact with the addition of the Green Deal, not a political statement either way.
I’m an oil analyst— I’ll take the under on 8.00 gas. oil is in a low forties strip price for 2021 Currently and there is significant Excess refining Capacity in the US, plus OPEC has immense spare Crude capacity. Even if Biden wins and halts drilling on federal lands (not a certainty based on his current proposals) that Would not lead to a rise in oil commensurate with an 8.00 gasoline price. Even in 2008 when we saw 145.00 oil, gasoline did not hit 8.00. We could see a rally in crude next year regardless of who wins, but it will probably not be to a level that supports 8.00 gasoline. If you wanted to stress test your EV assumptions feel free To budget higher than today, but 8.00 is a tad aggressive.

Btw, US prodn is slowing down regardless of who wins, it’s a function of lower prices, Covid, and Wall Street being unwilling to lend cheap money to the producers today.
 

Cyclone Cowboy

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I’m an oil analyst— I’ll take the under on 8.00 gas. oil is in a low forties strip price for 2021 Currently and there is significant Excess refining Capacity in the US, plus OPEC has immense spare Crude capacity. Even if Biden wins and halts drilling on federal lands (not a certainty based on his current proposals) that Would not lead to a rise in oil commensurate with an 8.00 gasoline price. Even in 2008 when we saw 145.00 oil, gasoline did not hit 8.00. We could see a rally in crude next year regardless of who wins, but it will probably not be to a level that supports 8.00 gasoline. If you wanted to stress test your EV assumptions feel free To budget higher than today, but 8.00 is a tad aggressive.

Btw, US prodn is slowing down regardless of who wins, it’s a function of lower prices, Covid, and Wall Street being unwilling to lend cheap money to the producers today.

The problem is proposed Green Deal "carbon taxes" on gasoline, not just the cost of oil. The purpose (like it or not) is to encourage people to buy electric and limit carbon emissions.
 

essentialemployee

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I’m getting carbonized gray specifically to increase my carbon foot print. This go green dooms day prophecy to pay taxes to save the world is something all industries are forced to obey like the new normal. Very sad.

I’m all for anything electric for the sake of more financial freedom. But I’m not quite ready to make the electric vehicle switch.
 

Horsetail

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The problem is proposed Green Deal "carbon taxes" on gasoline, not just the cost of oil. The purpose (like it or not) is to encourage people to buy electric and limit carbon emissions.
That’s a good point on carbon taxes, I was not thinking of those. Just read a Forbes article from 9/19 which suggested 40/ton carbon tax would mean 40cents more per gallon at the pump. Not sure how they decided 40.00 is the right number, I’m not sure what AOC has proposed and I thought the spot price of carbon in Europe was lower. I still think 8.00 seems high. Gasoline price in USD in France right now is 5.50 per gallon and they’ve had a carbon tax regime there and higher taxes in general for several years. (Don’t get me wrong, not exactly wishcasting for 5.50gallon.) It would be interesting to see if a Dem sweep Govt found alternative ways to pay for it vs consumers at the pump. Dems and Reps both have held off on helping the highway infra fund because they would have had to raise gasoline taxes to do it.
 

Slickrock

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The realities of the size of the US will prevent them from raising gas prices that high, despite any new deals.
 

Cyclone Cowboy

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The realities of the size of the US will prevent them from raising gas prices that high, despite any new deals.
They can raise gas prices to any level they want. We live in crazy times. People in CA have suffered this for years. I travel a lot so potential $5.00+ per gallon gas prices are a deal breaker for me. Good 4x4 hybrids are still years away, although I've heard that heavy-duty, water tight battery compartments are in development.
 

The Pope

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If someone thinks that if the USA could get to Zero Carbon Emissions, all would be good and the world pollution problem would be solved.... well... they are Sadly Mistaken.

There are other countries that produce WAY MORE Emission and that are not slowing down their production of them (more than likely they are increasing them) to more than offset the USA.

Stop Taxing us for something that we have No Substantial Control Over and Start Adding More Tariffs to items coming in from countries which continue to contribute to the problem.
 

Washburn

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If someone thinks that if the USA could get to Zero Carbon Emissions, all would be good and the world pollution problem would be solved.... well... they are Sadly Mistaken.

There are other countries that produce WAY MORE Emission and that are not slowing down their production of them (more than likely they are increasing them) to more than offset the USA.

Stop Taxing us for something that we have No Substantial Control Over and Start Adding More Tariffs to items coming in from countries which continue to contribute to the problem.
Looks like there's 1 country that's worse than the US. (2018 data) - checked a few other sources for per capita amounts and they're all pretty much the same: Either US is 2nd place on on top
1600876759712.png


Different source: (2020)

1600876918508.png
 

essentialemployee

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Looks like there's 1 country that's worse than the US. (2018 data) - checked a few other sources for per capita amounts and they're all pretty much the same: Either US is 2nd place on on top
1600876759712.png


Different source: (2020)
1600876918508.png
It is a religion. Your carbon footprint is the new original sin. As soon as we are born we are immediately destroying earth just by breathing out carbon dioxide. So we have the National Oceanic Atmospheric Association (NOAA) or Noah predicting that if we don’t stop living the way we are, there will be a great flood (melting ice caps) or other natural disasters. It’s a dooms day prophecy that the rulers use to impose control since the beginning of rulers and followers.
 
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