I'm at my Ford dealer and

[RushMan]

Read an aritcle on Ford Authority the other day about most all the manufacturers having large inventories. As I recall Ford has a 97 day supply, Jeep had 123. GM has the lowest among the Big Three.

Also saw where F150 sales are down 13% in Q1 compared to last year. Ford also lost 1.7 B on EV sales in Q1. They need to pump out pickups and SUV's to make up for their losses and they aren't selling. They have a problem. I'm surprised stockholders aren't up in arms about the losses on EV's. All the manufacturers now have rebates on trucks, their best selling product. Heavy duty pickups are still in short supply. Smart operators would pare back on units that aren't selling and increase those in short supply, but auto makers aren't very nimble. Instead they try to pump out more F150's with rebates rather than change to production mix.

I suspect the so called "resilient consumer" is tapped out. Credit card debt is at an all time high. I'd like to see delinquency on auto loans and bankruptcy data.

It's becoming a buyers' market, yet vehicles are grossly overpriced by inflation and poor marketing policies of auto makers. Still Ford has $25B in cash.

Link to article Ford F-Series Sales Fell 13 Percent During Q1 2024 (fordauthority.com)

Delinquency data was recently discussed on "Ray and Zach" YouTube videos, including showing delinquency rates for many banking institutions. Santander had the greatest increase in delinquencies, PNC Bank among the lowest.
The table starts at about 32 seconds into the video.

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[Bronclahoma]

I asked MS Copilot to give me quick status reports on this data and it generated the following. Note the 30 day delinquency for auto loans. I worked for the finance division of a manufacturer for years and we always kept that below 3%. I think the American consumer will spend with debt until they can't anymore. That's when we will see the big recession.

"Car Loan Delinquency:

• In Q1 2024, auto loan delinquencies continued to rise, with a significant increase among younger borrowers1.
• The Federal Reserve Bank of New York reported that auto loan balances rose by $12 billion, continuing the upward trajectory seen since 2020, and now stand at $1.61 trillion1.
• The delinquency transition rates for auto loans increased to 7.7%1.
• This is higher than the long-term average delinquency rate of 3.48%2.
• In comparison, in the first quarter of 2023, more than 1.69% of loans were 60 days past due, which was higher than the peak during the Great Recession3.

Bankruptcies:

• The data specifically related to bankruptcies is not provided in the search results. However, the increase in delinquencies often correlates with a rise in bankruptcy filings, as financial stress can lead to both outcomes.

The rise in delinquencies, particularly among younger and lower-income households, signals increased financial stress. This trend is concerning as it indicates that a larger number of borrowers are struggling to keep up with their loan payments1.

For a more detailed analysis, you might want to look at the full reports from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and other financial analysis sources"

 

[Bronclahoma]

Delinquency data was recently discussed on "Ray and Zach" YouTube videos, including showing delinquency rates for many banking institutions. Santander had the greatest increase in delinquencies, PNC Bank among the lowest.
The table starts at about 32 seconds into the video.

Some good info there! Thanks for sharing.

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